一类潜伏期有传染性的传染病模型动力学分析

张丽娟; 王福昌; 万永革; 李振刚

doi:10.21656/1000-0887.410251

一类潜伏期有传染性的传染病模型动力学分析

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410251

1. 中国地震局防灾科技学院，河北三河 065201;
2. 河北省地震动力学重点实验室, 河北三河 065201;
3. 中国社会科学院社会学研究所，北京 100010

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金（41674055）

中央高校基本科研业务费（ZY20215155）

详细信息

作者简介:
张丽娟（1983—），女，副教授，硕士(通讯作者. E-mail: Lijuan262658@126.com).

通讯作者:
张丽娟（1983—），女，副教授，硕士(通讯作者. E-mail: Lijuan262658@126.com).

中图分类号: O175.13
计量
- 文章访问数: 635
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-08-26
- 修回日期: 2021-06-07
- 网络出版日期: 2021-08-14

Dynamic Analysis of an Epidemic Model With Infectivity in the Incubation Period

1. Institute of Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration, Sanhe, Hebei 065201, P.R.China;
2. Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Sanhe, Hebei 065201, P.R.China;
3. Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100010, P.R.China

Funds:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China(41674055)

摘要

摘要: 建立了一类潜伏期具备传染性的传染病传播模型，根据疾病传播规律求解了疾病消失和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数.对系统的稳定性进行了讨论，得到了系统稳定性条件.最后，以COVID-19为例，解释了各种举措在疾病控制中的作用，并对疫情传播扩散做了探讨和预测.
- 流行病模型 /
- 全局稳定性 /
- 基本再生数 /
- COVID-19
Abstract: A transmission model for infectious diseases with infectivity in the latent periods was established. According to the law of disease transmission, the basic regeneration number, as the threshold of disease disappearance and spread, was solved. The stability of the system was discussed and the stability condition for the system was obtained. With the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, the effects of various measures for disease control were studied. The spread of the pandemic was discussed and predicted. The work makes a reference for epidemic disease control.
- epidemic model /
- global stability /
- basic regeneration number /
- COVID-19

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参考文献(15)

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