AMSAA-BISE可靠性增长模型不能成立

Comments on AMSAA-BISE Reliability Growth Model

摘要: 阐述周源泉、翁朝曦提出的AMSAA-BISE模型存在的问题,提出一个近似计算模型,并给出数值例加以说明.
- 可靠性增长 /
- 多台系统 /
- 同步增长 /
- AMSAA模型 /
- AMSAA-BISE模型
Abstract: From 1986 to 1991, based on AMSAA model, ZHOU Yuan-quan and WENG Zhao-xi presented AMSAA-BISE model to estimate reliability growth for multiple systems development, for the case that more than one system of the same type is put into reliability growth test, once a Type B failure mode is seen during test, corrective action will be taken to all systems. It is shown that there is something wrong with AMSAA-BISE model. According to AMSAA-BISE model, the maximum likelihood estimation of MTBF for multiple systems reliability growth test is much larger than that according to AMSAA model for a single system; The more systems is put into test, the larger the estimation of MTBF. An example is given, and an approximate method is presented.
- reliability growth /
- multiple systems /
- simultaneous development /
- AMSAA model /
- AM-SAA-BISE model

[1]	Crow L H.Estimation procedures for the duane model.ADA019372[R],1972,32-44.
[2]	Crow L H(ed).AMSAA reliability growth symposium.ADA027053[R].1974.
[3]	MIL-HDBK-189.Reliability Growth Management[S].1981.
[4]	MIL-HDBK-781.Reliability Test Methods,Plans and Environments for Engineering Development,Qual-Ification and Productions[S].1987.
[5]	IEC TC-56(Co.)150.Reliability Growth Models and Estimation Methods[S],1989.
[6]	周源泉.多台系统同步开发的可靠性增长[J].应用数学和力学,1986,7(9):831-837.
[7]	ZHOU Yuan-quan,WENG Zhao-xi.AMSAA-BISE Model[A].In:Mao Shisong,Y sunada,Ed.3rd Japan-China Symposium on Statistics[C].Soka Univ:Tokyo,Japan,1989,179-182.
[8]	周源泉,翁朝曦.AMSAA-BISE模型及其统计推断[J].系统工程与电子技术,1991,(11):72-78.
[9]	周源泉,翁朝曦.含间断区间的AMSAA-BISE模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,1990,(5):1-7.
[10]	周源泉,翁朝曦.可靠性增长[M].北京:科学出版社,1992.
[11]	GJB1407-92.可靠性增长试验[S].国防科工委军标出版发行部,1992.
[12]	GJB/Z77-95.可靠性增长管理手册[S].国防科工委军标出版发行部,1995.
[13]	梅文华,杨义先.对GJB/Z77多台同型产品增长模型的分析[J].航空学报,1999,20(1):65-68.