Panderivative Blown-Up of Ground Temperature and Predicting Earthquake
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摘要: 本文在泛系的广义转化、优化和泛导变变关系中的非线性动力系统的溃变理论[1,2]的启发下,利用[2]的方法显化了非线性热传导方程的溃变与实际的地温‘流’演变类似.为此,作者结合1976年唐山大地震进行了相应的模拟.结果表明：地震前后的地温‘流’溃变可以用于地震预报,对唐山大地震约有5个月的预见期.若地温‘流’体现地壳运动的不可积的泛导方程,在信息充分的条件下,显化其溃变机理,则地震(地壳断裂)是可预报的.Abstract: According to the blown-up theory(described in references[1,2])for nonlinear dynamic system on the relationship of general pansystem transformation,optimsation and panderivative blown-up,by means of blown-up theory,we demonstrate that the blown-up of nonlinear heat conductive equation is similar to the evolution of observational ground temperature ‘flow'.in this paper.And a successful simulation of Tang Shan Earthquake in 1976 has been given.The result of simulation indicates that the blown-up of ground temperature-flow.around earthquake can be applied to predict earthquake. As for Tang Shan Earthquake,the predicting time is about five months. If ground temperat ure ‘flow'.that embodies the earth's crust satisfies the unintegral panderivative equation,we can demonstrate its mechanism and forecast earthquake with enough information.
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Key words:
- ground temperature ‘flow’ /
- blown-up /
- panderivative /
- predicting
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[1] 吴学谋,《从泛系着世界》,中国人民出版社(1990). [2] 欧阳首承等,《运动流体的断裂与天气预测的若干问题》,成都科技大学出版社(1994). [3] [加]加兰(Garland,G.D),《地球物理引论-地幔,地核和地壳》,刘则仁译,地震出版社(1987). [4] [德])O.卡普迈耶,R.海涅尔同著,《地热学及其应用》,陈乾元译,科学出版社(1981). [5] L.Rybach and L.J.Pmuffler,Geothermal system)——Principles and cases histories,Rev.Geophy.,25(3)(1982),1441-1472. [6] 汤懋苍、张健,“地温突升”与短期气候变化初深,高原气象,9(4)(1990),364-370. [7] 耿国庆著,《中国旱震关系研究》,海洋出版社(1985). [8] 欧阳首承,泛系预测观与流体暴转,应用数学和力学,16(3)(1995),255-262. [9] [苏] 莫伊谢科等,《地热研究与应用》,周惠兰等译,地震出版社(1990). [10] [苏] 戈尔什科夫等,《地震危险区地球物理综合研究成果》,徐客明译,地震出版社(1984),128-160. -
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