禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析

周飘飘; 祝光湖

doi:10.21656/1000-0887.390175

禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175

周飘飘¹,
祝光湖^1,2

¹桂林电子科技大学数学与计算科学学院, 广西桂林 541004;²广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院, 广州 511430

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（11661026）;广州市科技计划（201804010383）；广西自然科学基金(2017GXNSFAA198235)

详细信息

作者简介:
周飘飘（1993—），女，硕士生(E-mail: 1150732811@qq.com);祝光湖（1979－），男，副教授，博士(通讯作者. E-mail: ghzhu@guet.edu.cn).

中图分类号: O29；O175.1
计量
- 文章访问数: 1021
- HTML全文浏览量: 150
- PDF下载量: 691
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-06-25
- 修回日期: 2018-09-19
- 刊出日期: 2019-03-01

Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model

ZHOU Piaopiao¹,
ZHU Guanghu^1,2

¹School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, P.R.China;²Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, P.R.China

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China（11661026）

摘要

摘要: H7N9型禽流感严重威胁人类健康和生命安全.为研究H7N9病毒的传播规律，提出了一个结合人群、家禽和环境中病毒之间相互作用的SI-V-SEIR禽流感传染病模型.通过动力学分析，给出基本再生数R₀的表达式，并证明无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的稳定性.接着应用模型分析广东省2016年—2017年的H7N9疫情，获得疫情初期R₀=18.8，此时禽类的接种率需达到94.7%才能控制病毒在禽类和环境中的传播，而采取措施后R₀=0.14.结果表明，降低环境中的病毒载量、和禽类之间以及禽到人的传染率能有效地减少染病人数.
- H7N9 /
- 动力学模型 /
- 稳定性 /
- 基本再生数
Abstract: Avian influenza A(H7N9) is always a big threat to human health and safety. Aimed at the transmission patterns of A(H7N9), a new SI-V-SEIR epidemic model was put forward, which incorporated the viral interactions among humans, poultry and environment. Through dynamic analysis, the expression of basic reproduction number R₀ was given, and the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points was proved. The proposed model was further applied to study the 2016—2017 A(H7N9) outbreaks in Guangdong province. It is found thatR₀=18.8 in the early outbreak, which indicates 94.7% of poultry to be vaccinated for the control of the virus transmission in poultry and environment. After control,R₀ will fall down to 0.14. The results show that, reduction of the viral load in environment and the infection ratios among poultry and from poultry to humans could effectively lower human infections.
- H7N9 /
- dynamic model /
- stability /
- basic reproduction number

HTML全文

参考文献(15)

[1]	GAO R, CAO B, HU Y, et al. Human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza a (H7N9) virus[J]. The New England Journal of Medicine,2013,368(20): 1888-1897.
[2]	徐继承, 黄水平, 肖伟伟, 等. 中国大陆地区438例人感染H7N9禽流感空间聚集性分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2014,35(11): 1270-1274. （XU Jicheng, HUANG Shuiping, XIAO Weiwei, et al. Spatial aggregation of 438 human infections with avian influenza A (H7N9) in the mainland of China[J]. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology,2014,35(11): 1270-1274.(in Chinese))
[3]	ZHANG J, JIN Z, SUN G Q, et al. Determination of original infection source of H7N9 avian influenza by dynamical model[J]. Scientific Reports,2014,4: 4846. DOI: 10.1038/srep04846.
[4]	LIN Q, LIN Z, CHIU A P Y, et al. Seasonality of influenza A (H7N9) virus in China: fitting simple epidemic models to human cases[J]. PloS One,2016,11(3): e0151333. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0151333.
[5]	LU J, LIU W, XIA R, et al. Effects of closing and reopening live poultry markets on the epidemic of human infection with avian influenza A virus[J]. Journal of Biomedical Research,2016,30(2): 112-119.
[6]	XING Y, SONG L, SUN G Q, et al. Assessing reappearance factors of H7N9 avian influenza in China[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2017,309: 192-204.
[7]	ZHOU X, LI Y, WANG Y, et al. The role of live poultry movement and live bird market biosecurity in the epidemiology of influenza A (H7N9): a cross-sectional observational study in four eastern China provinces[J]. Journal of Infection,2015,71(4): 470-479.
[8]	CHEN L J, LIN X D, GUO W P, et al. Diversity and evolution of avian influenza viruses in live poultry markets, free-range poultry and wild wetland birds in China[J]. Journal of General Virology,2016,〖STHZ〗 97(4): 844-854.
[9]	BREBAN R, DRAKE J M, STALLKNECHT D E, et al. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics[J]. PLoS Computational Biology,2009,5(4): e1000346. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000346.
[10]	WEN Y M, KLENK H D. Erratum: H7N9 avian influenza virus: search and re-search[J]. Emerging Microbes & Infections,2013,2(5): e26. DOI: 10.1038/emi.2013.26.
[11]	ZHOU P, MA J, LAI A, et al. Avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and mixed live poultry-animal markets in Guangdong province: a perfect storm in the making?[J]. Emerging Microbes & Infections,2015,4(10): e63. DOI: 10.1038/emi.2015.63.
[12]	马知恩, 周义仓, 王稳地, 等. 传染病动力学的数学建模与研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2004.(MA Zhien, ZHOU Yicang, WANG Wendi, et al. The Mathematical Modeling and Study of Infectious Disease Dynamics [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2004.(in Chinese))
[13]	VAN DEN DRIESSCHE P, WATMOUGH J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission[J]. Mathematical Biosciences,2002,180(1): 29-48.
[14]	ZHAO X Q, JING Z J. Global asymptotic behavior in some cooperative systems of functional differential equations[J]. Canadian Applied Mathematics Quarterly,1996,4(4): 421-444.
[15]	王伟贤. 矩阵不可约的充要条件[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 1988(4): 42-46.(WANG Weixian. The necessary condition for the matrix irreducibility[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory,1988(4): 42-46.(in Chinese))