年龄结构、接触模式和接种对手足口病传播机制的影响

周峰; 祝光湖; 唐甜

doi:10.21656/1000-0887.400175

年龄结构、接触模式和接种对手足口病传播机制的影响

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.400175

周峰¹,
祝光湖^1,2,
唐甜^2,3

¹桂林电子科技大学数学与计算科学学院, 广西桂林 541004;²桂林电子科技大学广西密码学与信息安全重点实验室, 广西桂林 541004;³桂林电子科技大学电子电路国家级实验教学示范中心, 广西桂林 541004

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（11661026）；广西自然科学基金(2017GXNSFAA198235)

详细信息

作者简介:
周峰（1992—），男，硕士生(E-mail: 1552619132@qq.com);唐甜（1987—），女，讲师，硕士(通讯作者. E-mail: ttian1015@163.com).

中图分类号: O29|O175.1
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- 文章访问数: 1525
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- PDF下载量: 353
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-05-27
- 修回日期: 2019-09-23
- 刊出日期: 2020-05-01

Effects of Age Structure, Contact Patterns and Vaccination on Transmission of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease

¹School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, P.R.China;²Guangxi Key Laboratory of Cryptography and Information Security, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, P.R.China;³National Demonstration Center for Experimental Electronic Circuit Education, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, P.R.China

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China（11661026）

摘要

摘要: 为进一步揭示手足口病的传播机制和优化免疫决策，提出了一类具有年龄结构、接触模式和疫苗接种的手足口病传染病模型.首先运用下一代生成矩阵求解模型基本再生数；然后利用稳定性和动力学的有关理论证明无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性以及全局稳定性；最后通过数值模拟分析模型参数的影响权重.研究发现，年龄分组、接触矩阵和疫苗使用会极大地影响传播，其中年龄结构的异质性可能会恶化疫情，而隔离病人、提高疫苗的覆盖率和接种率均能够有效控制疾病传播.该文工作对于如何有效预防和控制手足口病的传播具有科学指导意义.
- 手足口病 /
- 动力学模型 /
- 基本再生数 /
- 稳定性
Abstract: In order to further reveal the transmission mechanism and optimize the immune strategy of the hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD), a new HFMD transmission model was proposed under the effects of age structure, contact patterns and vaccination. The next generation matrix was used to calculate the basic reproduction number, and the theory of stability and dynamics was used to prove the existence and global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Finally numerical simulation was conducted to explore the effects of model parameters. It is found that age structure, contact matrices and vaccination have significant influence on the transmission, and the heterogeneity of age structure may worsen the infection, but quarantining patients and improving vaccination coverage vaccination rates can effectively help to control the disease. The results provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of HFMD transmission.
- hand-foot-mouth disease /
- dynamic model /
- basic reproduction number /
- stability

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参考文献(15)

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文章访问数: 1525
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年龄结构、接触模式和接种对手足口病传播机制的影响

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.400175

作者简介:
周峰（1992—），男，硕士生(E-mail: 1552619132@qq.com);唐甜（1987—），女，讲师，硕士(通讯作者. E-mail: ttian1015@163.com).

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Effects of Age Structure, Contact Patterns and Vaccination on Transmission of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease

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留言板

年龄结构、接触模式和接种对手足口病传播机制的影响

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.400175

作者简介: 周峰（1992—），男，硕士生(E-mail: 1552619132@qq.com);唐甜（1987—），女，讲师，硕士(通讯作者. E-mail: ttian1015@163.com).

计量

出版历程

Effects of Age Structure, Contact Patterns and Vaccination on Transmission of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
周峰（1992—），男，硕士生(E-mail: 1552619132@qq.com);唐甜（1987—），女，讲师，硕士(通讯作者. E-mail: ttian1015@163.com).