基于动态Bayes网络的结构时变可靠性分析

孙鸿宾; 吴子燕; 刘书奎

doi:10.3879/j.issn.1000-0887.2014.01.011

基于动态Bayes网络的结构时变可靠性分析

doi: 10.3879/j.issn.1000-0887.2014.01.011

西北工业大学力学与土木建筑学院, 西安 710129

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（51278420）

详细信息

作者简介:
孙鸿宾（1991—），男，合肥人，博士生(通讯作者. E-mail: hbsun1991@mail.nwpu.edu.cn)

中图分类号: TU311.2; O342
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-06-25
- 修回日期: 2013-11-01
- 刊出日期: 2014-01-15

A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for Structural Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Resistance Deterioration

School of Mechanics, Civil Engineering and Architecture, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710129, P.R.China

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China（51278420）

摘要

摘要: 针对存在抗力退化结构的时变可靠性问题，提出一种动态贝叶斯网络(dynamic Bayesian network, DBN)模型，以gamma过程作为抗力退化模型，并离散为Bayes网络，同时建立观测模型、可靠性模型，组合为动态Bayes网络，通过连续节点消除与离散得到仅含离散变量的动态Bayes网络；给出精确推理的3种情况，评估现在（滤波）、未来（预测）以及过去时刻（平滑）结构的状态.当测量信息出现时，对退化模型参数重新估计，利用精确推理来更新结构时变可靠性.以存在抗力退化的一跨刚架作为研究对象，验证了模型的合理性
- 时变可靠性 /
- 动态Bayes网络 /
- 抗力退化 /
- 精确推理 /
- 更新
Abstract: A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model was proposed for timedependent reliability analysis of structures in deterioration. The structural resistance deterioration was modeled as a gamma process while the loads as random variables. The stochastic deterioration process was discretized in time domain as deterioration models. A DBN was established and comprised of the reliability model, deterioration model and observation model. Node elimination algorithm and discretization were applied to modify the DBN into a network with only discrete variables. Exact inferences with the DBN were presented to estimate the 3 structural states at present (filtering), in the future (prediction) and in the past (smoothing), respectively. The structural timedependent reliability was updated with the reestimated deterioration model when measurements were available. The proposed model was validated through the timedependent reliability analysis of a onebay example frame in resistance deterioration.
- time-dependent reliability /
- dynamic Bayesian network /
- resistance deterioration /
- exact inference /
- updating

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参考文献(13)

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