Volume 42 Issue 12
Dec.  2021
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
CUI Jin. Analysis and Application of a COVID-19 Transmission Model With Tracking and Isolation Measures[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(12): 1306-1316. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107
Citation: CUI Jin. Analysis and Application of a COVID-19 Transmission Model With Tracking and Isolation Measures[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(12): 1306-1316. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107

Analysis and Application of a COVID-19 Transmission Model With Tracking and Isolation Measures

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107
Funds:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China(11801398)

  • Received Date: 2021-04-22
  • Rev Recd Date: 2021-05-31
  • Available Online: 2021-12-31
  • The novel coronavirus epidemic, appearing at the end of December 2019, spread rapidly due to the large-scale population movement in the Spring Festival travel rush in 2020. Since January 23, 2020, China has taken various measures to effectively control the epidemic. For example, the closure of Wuhan, the tracking and isolation of close contacts of confirmed cases, and the home isolation of Hubei people, etc. Based on the actual transmission of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shanxi province, a dynamic model was established for tracking and isolation of close contacts with imported and confirmed cases. Without regard to the imported cases, the dynamic behavior of the model was analyzed. By means of the case data of novel coronavirus in Shanxi province, the real-time reproduction number was calculated. It is found that the closure of villages and streets in Shanxi province on January 25, 2020 effectively controls the spread of COVID-19 epidemic, that is, the real-time reproduction number is less than 1, which verifies the effectiveness of prevention and control measures from a macro perspective. Further, through the numerical simulation of the model, it is concluded that the prevention and control strategy for early infected patients isolated for 14 days is reasonable and effective; the earlier the closure of Wuhan is, the smaller the scale of infected people will be; the larger number of tracked and isolated contacts of confirmed cases is, the smaller the size of the patients will be.

  • loading
  • 世界卫生组织. 2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)专题问答[EB/OL]. (2020-10

    -12)[2021-05-31]. https://www.who.int/zh/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.(World Health Organization. Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) questions and answers[EB/OL]. (2020-10-12)[2021-05-31]. https://www.who.int/zh/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.(in Chinese))
    [2]中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会公告[EB/OL]. (2020-01-20)[2021-05-31].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202001/44a3b8245e8049d2837a4f27529cd386.shtml.(National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Announcement of National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China [EB/OL].(2020-01-20)[2021-05-31].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202001/44a3b8245e8049d2837a4f27529cd386.shtml.(in Chinese))
    [3]中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 国家卫生健康委关于修订新型冠状病毒肺炎英文命名事宜的通知[EB/OL]. (2020-02-08)[2021-05-31].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202002/18c1bb43965a4492907957875-de02ae7.shtml.(National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Notification from the National Health Commission on the revision of the English nomenclature of COVID-19[EB/OL]. (2020-02-08)[2021-05-31].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202002/18c1bb43965a4492907957875de02ae7.shtml.(in Chinese))
    [4]世界卫生组织. 世卫组织总干事在2020年2月11日举行的2019新型冠状病毒媒体通报会上的讲话[EB/OL].(2020-02-11)[2021-05-31].https://www.who.int/zh/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-2019-ncov-on-11-february-2020.(World Health Organization. Statement by the director-general of WHO at the novel coronavirus 2019 media briefing, 11 February 2020[EB/OL].(2020-02-11)[2021-05-31].https://www.who.int/zh/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-2019-ncov-on-11-february-2020.(in Chinese))
    [5]中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 国家卫生健康委关于修订新型冠状病毒肺炎英文命名事宜的通知[EB/OL].(2020-02-22)[2021-05-31].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202002/6ed7614bc35244cab117d5a03-c2b4861.shtml.(National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Notification from the National Health Commission on the revision of the English nomenclature of COVID-19[EB/OL].(2020-02-22)[2021-05-31].http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/zhengcwj/202002/6ed7614bc35244cab117d5a03c2b4861.shtml.(in Chinese))
    [6]LI Q, GUAN X, WU P, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia[J].New England Journal of Medicine,2020,382(13): 1199-1207.
    [7]李盈科, 赵时, 楼一均, 等. 新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行病学参数与模型[J].物理学报, 2020,69(9): 090202.(LI Yingke, ZHAO Shi, LOU Yijun, et al. Epidemiological parameters and models of coronavirus disease 2019[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2020,69(9): 090202.(in Chinese))
    [8]TANG B, WANG X, LI Q, et al. Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions[J].Journal of Clinical Medicine,2020,9(2): 462.
    [9]曹文静, 刘小菲, 韩卓, 等. 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情确诊病例的统计分析及自回归建模[J].物理学报, 2020,69(9): 090203.(CAO Wenjing, LIU Xiaofei, HAN Zhuo, et al. Statistical analysis and autoregressive modeling of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic cases[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2020,69(9): 090203.(in Chinese))
    [10]王国强, 张烁, 杨俊元, 等. 耦合不同年龄层接触模式的新冠肺炎传播模型[J].物理学报, 2021,70(1): 010201.(WANG Guoqiang, ZHANG Shuo, YANG Junyuan, et al. Study of coupling the age-structured contact patterns to the COVID-19 pandemic transmission[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2021,70(1): 010201.(in Chinese))
    [11]CHONG K C, CHENG W, ZHAO S, et al. Monitoring disease transmissibility of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in Zhejiang, China[J].International Journal of Infectious Diseases,2020,96: 128-130.
    [12]孙皓宸, 刘肖凡, 许小可, 等. 基于连续感染模型的新冠肺炎校园传播与防控策略分析[J].物理学报, 2020,69(24): 240201.(SUN Haochen, LIU Xiaofan, XU Xiaoke, et al. Analysis of COVID-19 spreading and prevention strategy in schools based on continuous infection model[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2020,69(24): 240201.(in Chinese))
    [13]LI M T, SUN G Q, ZHANG J, et al. Analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi province with discrete time imported cases[J].Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering,2020,17(4): 3710-3720.
    [14]VAN DEN DREESSCHE P, WATMOUGH J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission[J].Mathematical Biosciences,2002,180(1/2): 29-48.
    [15]SMITH H L, WALTMAN P. The Theory of the Chemostat[M].Cambridge University Press, 1995.
    [16]LASALLE J P. The Stability of Dynamical Systems[M]. Philadelphia: SIAM, 1976.
    [17]胡義, 王开发, 王稳地. 2019新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情传播能力及疫情控制效能的地域差异分析[J].应用数学学报, 2020,43(2): 227-237.(HU Yi, WANG Kaifa, WANG Wendi. Analysis of transmissibility of COVID-19 and regional differences in disease control[J].Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica,2020,43(2): 227-237.(in Chinese))
    [18]山西省卫生健康委员会. 山西省启动重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应[EB/OL].(2020-01-25)[2021-05-31].http://wjw.shanxi.gov.cn/wsyjzsxc/25056.hrh.(Health Commission of Shanxi Province. Shanxi province has launched a level 1 response to major public health emergencies[EB/OL].(2020-01-25)[2021-05-31].http://wjw.shanxi.gov.cn/wsyjzsxc/25056.hrh.(in Chinese))
    [19]山西省人民政府. 山西省2019年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2020-03-09)[2021-05-31].http://www.shanxi.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202003/t20200309_768836.shtml.(The People’s Government of Shanxi Province. National economic and social development statistical bulletin of Shanxi province in 2019[EB/OL].(2020-03-09)[2021-05-31].http://www.shanxi.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202003/t20200309_768836.shtml.(in Chinese))
    [20]山西省卫生健康委员会. 2020年3月6日山西省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情情况[EB/OL].(2020-03-06)[2021-05-31].http://wjw.shanxi.gov.cn/wjywl02/25190.hrh.(Health Commission of Shanxi Province. COVID-19 epidemic situation in Shanxi province, March 6, 2020[EB/OL]. (2020-03-06)[2021-05-31].http://wjw.shanxi.gov.cn/wjywl02/25190.hrh.(in Chinese))
    [21]LI M T, CUI J, ZHANG J, et al. Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases[J].Infectious Disease Modelling,2021,6(1): 618-631.
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article views (304) PDF downloads(41) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return