Volume 42 Issue 2
Feb.  2021
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Article Contents
CHEN Xingzhi, TIAN Baodan, WANG Daiwen, HUANG Feixiang, FU Lingyan, XU Haoying. Evaluation and Prediction of Prevention and Control Effects of the COVID-19 Epidemic Based on the SEIR Model[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(2): 199-211. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410139
 Citation: CHEN Xingzhi, TIAN Baodan, WANG Daiwen, HUANG Feixiang, FU Lingyan, XU Haoying. Evaluation and Prediction of Prevention and Control Effects of the COVID-19 Epidemic Based on the SEIR Model[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(2): 199-211.

# Evaluation and Prediction of Prevention and Control Effects of the COVID-19 Epidemic Based on the SEIR Model

##### doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410139
• Rev Recd Date: 2020-12-31
• Publish Date: 2021-02-01
• Based on the analysis of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, a SEIR epidemic model was established with the diagnosed population divided into 2 categories: the admitted population and the non-admitted population. Through theoretical analysis, the basic reproduction number, the disease-free equilibrium of the model and its stability were derived. Further, several numerical simulations and comparative analysis were conducted on the development trend of the epidemic situation in Wuhan before and after the city closure, as well as the influences of some important parameters in the model on the number of diagnosed cases. Finally, according to the results of above theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, some control strategies previously adopted were analyzed and evaluated, and predictions were made for the development of the epidemic.
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