2020, 41(3): 319-328.
doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.400057
Abstract:
Lateral unloading leads to development of many perilous rock masses on high and steep slopes. It is significant to judge the probability of instability under the action of rainfall and earthquake. For the perilous toppling rock, the physical and mechanical model with the most dangerous seismic force directions was established. Based on the extreme value theory for functions, the expression of the most dangerous seismic force direction was given. Combined with the reliability theory, the reliability index, the expression of the probability of instability and the judgment criterion for the perilous toppling rock were built. The proposed method was applied to analyze the stability of perilous toppling rock masses in the Jinfoshan district in Chongqing. The calculation results show that, the most dangerous seismic force direction in case 1 is within 5°, and in case 2 is about 10°; the most dangerous direction angle is not a fixed value, but related to the shape, the fracture water pressure and the depth of rock cavity, etc. When the control crack length is small, the most dangerous direction angle is small under other conditions but will increase significantly with the crack length. The probability of instability increases with the control crack length in case 2 more than in case 1. The research work is applicable to disaster prevention and mitigation of perilous rocks.