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具有跟踪隔离措施的新冠肺炎传播模型分析及应用

崔锦,李明涛,裴鑫

崔锦,李明涛,裴鑫. 具有跟踪隔离措施的新冠肺炎传播模型分析及应用[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2021, 42(12): 1306-1316. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107
引用本文: 崔锦,李明涛,裴鑫. 具有跟踪隔离措施的新冠肺炎传播模型分析及应用[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2021, 42(12): 1306-1316. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107
CUI Jin. Analysis and Application of a COVID-19 Transmission Model With Tracking and Isolation Measures[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(12): 1306-1316. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107
Citation: CUI Jin. Analysis and Application of a COVID-19 Transmission Model With Tracking and Isolation Measures[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(12): 1306-1316. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107

具有跟踪隔离措施的新冠肺炎传播模型分析及应用

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.420107
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金(11801398);山西省应用基础研究面上青年项目(201801D221024)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    崔锦,李明涛,裴鑫:崔锦(1997—),女,硕士(E-mail: 2443411847@qq.com);李明涛(1989—),男,博士(通讯作者. E-mail: limingtao18@126.com);裴鑫(1991—),女,博士(E-mail: peixin1120@126.com).

  • 中图分类号: O357.41

Analysis and Application of a COVID-19 Transmission Model With Tracking and Isolation Measures

Funds: 

The National Natural Science Foundation of China(11801398)

  • 摘要:

    报道于2019年12月底的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情, 由于2020年春运期间人口的大规模流动, 使得其迅速蔓延.自2020年1月23日起, 我国采取了各种措施使得疫情得到了有效的控制, 例如武汉封城、确诊病例的密切接触者跟踪隔离、湖北人员的居家隔离等.该文基于COVID-19在山西省的实际传播情况, 建立了具有输入病例和确诊病例密切接触者跟踪隔离的动力学模型.在不考虑输入病例的情况下, 分析了模型的动力学行为.利用山西省COVID-19病例数据, 计算了实时再生数, 发现山西省2020 年1月25日全省封村封街道有效控制了COVID-19疫情的传播, 即实时再生数小于1, 从宏观角度验证了防控措施的有效性.进一步通过模型的数值拟合得到: 早期染病者隔离14天的防控策略是合理有效的; 武汉封城时间越早, 染病者的规模越小; 跟踪隔离到大量确诊病例的接触者时, 染病者的规模越小.

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-22
  • 修回日期:  2021-05-31
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-12-31

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