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禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析

周飘飘 祝光湖

周飘飘, 祝光湖. 禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175
引用本文: 周飘飘, 祝光湖. 禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175
ZHOU Piaopiao, ZHU Guanghu. Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175
Citation: ZHOU Piaopiao, ZHU Guanghu. Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175

禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(11661026);广州市科技计划(201804010383);广西自然科学基金(2017GXNSFAA198235)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    周飘飘(1993—),女,硕士生(E-mail: 1150732811@qq.com);祝光湖(1979-),男,副教授,博士(通讯作者. E-mail: ghzhu@guet.edu.cn).

  • 中图分类号: O29;O175.1

Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China(11661026)
  • 摘要: H7N9型禽流感严重威胁人类健康和生命安全.为研究H7N9病毒的传播规律,提出了一个结合人群、家禽和环境中病毒之间相互作用的SI-V-SEIR禽流感传染病模型.通过动力学分析,给出基本再生数R0的表达式,并证明无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的稳定性.接着应用模型分析广东省2016年—2017年的H7N9疫情,获得疫情初期R0=18.8,此时禽类的接种率需达到94.7%才能控制病毒在禽类和环境中的传播,而采取措施后R0=0.14.结果表明,降低环境中的病毒载量、和禽类之间以及禽到人的传染率能有效地减少染病人数.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2018-06-25
  • 修回日期:  2018-09-19
  • 刊出日期:  2019-03-01

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